Bitcoin retested its May cycle high near $116K, signaling a potential cycle top and opening room for a short-term pullback or rally.
Miner OTC balances have dropped to 147.5K BTC, one of the lowest in years, suggesting reduced selling pressure and bullish undercurrents.
Analysts see room for a push into late August, but a potential weekly cycle decline in September could cool down current momentum.
Bitcoin is at a technical crossroads after retesting its May cycle highs. With bullish momentum building and miners holding tight, analysts anticipate a possible surge into late August before another correction phase.
BTC Retests May Cycle High Near $116K
Bitcoin’s price action recently tapped the May cycle high near $116,000, marking a possible short-term cycle top. This zone triggered strong reactions in the past. Prices briefly pulled back after the retest but remained above the $111,000 support, showing resilience. The structure continues to favor bulls with a higher-low pattern in play.
Source Bob Loukas X
According to Bob Loukas, most 60-day cycles include a retest or lower low. However, during strong bull markets, this behavior shifts. He noted that while a typical correction is expected, traders shouldn’t bank on it in this stage of the cycle. Loukas anticipates a push into late August before the market enters a weekly cycle decline into September.
Miners Are Holding – A Bullish Signal
Miner activity offers more context. According to data shared by CryptosRus, miner OTC balances have dropped significantly, sitting at around 147.5K BTC. This is one of the lowest levels in recent years.
https://twitter.com/CryptosR_Us/status/1952523452310606255
That sharp decline in sellable reserves points to lower selling pressure from miners. When miners hold instead of sell, it reduces available supply. Historically, this has been a key factor during major bull runs. The market may be seeing early signs of such a setup now.
Chart Patterns and CME Gap Talk
Technical analysts are also watching chart behavior closely. Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim the $116,000 level, which aligns with the Daily CME gap. Filling and reclaiming this level could re-establish strong momentum.
Another analyst, Super฿ro, pointed out that recent weekly candles resemble an inverse head and shoulders. The breakout and retest near $115,000 may act as a springboard for higher targets. Still, the $124,000 region remains a tough resistance to crack. If broken, the next target sits around $132,000.