Key Takeaways:
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees two more opportunities for BTC upside in this market cycle.
Risk appetite among investors is declining as bull market matures.
Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2025 before selling pressure outweighs demand.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. believes the current bull market still holds two more potential rally phases before reaching its peak, despite signs of weakening investor sentiment and early profit-taking.
According to a report shared by TechFlow, Adler noted that investor risk appetite has started to decline, consistent with the late-stage behavior of a bull cycle. Data shows the key market indicator surged past 1.9 in both March and December 2024, signaling strong bullish momentum at the time. However, the most recent peak is lower—suggesting reduced buying conviction and increasing sell pressure from holders.
"We're seeing a lower high forming, which often indicates a market cooling phase. Long-term holders are beginning to take profits, which puts pressure on prices," Adler said.
Fed Rate Cuts May Fuel Final Crypto Rallies
Adler also pointed to macroeconomic catalysts that could spur the final two rallies of this cycle. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, providing temporary tailwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Still, he warned that once these rate cuts are priced in and supply outpaces demand, the market could shift toward a broader correction phase.
Final Upside Before Macro Shift
CryptoQuant’s outlook suggests investors should brace for volatility, with short-term opportunities still present—but waning. Market watchers are now monitoring Fed policy, ETF flows, and long-term holder behavior as signals for when the final phase of this crypto cycle will unfold.
