Goldman Sachs’ top trader, Tony Pasquarello, sees the U.S. stock rally holding its pace but flags a shifting risk and reward dynamic as summer approaches—especially with the crypto market ballooning to a staggering $4 trillion in value.
Goldman’s Pasquarello on Markets: Rally Fueled, Risks Rising
In a market note covered by Tyler Durden at Zerohedge, Pasquarello, who leads hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs, pointed to fresh equity highs, largely powered by mega-cap tech momentum and favorable technicals. Still, he pointed to uneven economic signals and earnings results, stressing that CEOs now need to deliver standout surprises to keep the rally going.
He called attention to several important themes, including the typical summer slowdown in liquidity and the high-stakes earnings reports ahead from tech giants. Of particular interest to him are those companies’ spending blueprints and how they plan to return capital to shareholders.
Crypto markets, however, stole the spotlight in the analysis. Pasquarello spotlighted insights from expert Dominika Nestarcova, who credited bitcoin’s recent climb—despite a slight pullback late in the week—to regulatory momentum in the U.S. Alongside this, strong spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows (which now hold around $150 billion in assets), solid spot trading activity, and increased adoption by corporate treasuries.
Source: Zerohedge & Goldman Sachs.
Nestarcova noted the broader crypto market blasted past $4 trillion in value, with ethereum ( ETH) jumping 30% over the week as it played catch-up. Presently, the overall crypto market is down from the $4 trillion high by $100 billion, standing at $3.9 trillion as of Sunday, July 20, 2025.
Outside digital assets, Pasquarello pointed to infrastructure spending as a major tailwind—spanning artificial intelligence (AI), energy, reshoring, defense, and climate projects. He named power-related equities and industrial metals as key areas benefiting from this ongoing shift.
Even with bullish signals still flashing and near-term technicals looking strong, Pasquarello issued a word of caution. With the rally stretching back to Apr., the room for further gains appears tighter. He flagged rising pressure in sovereign debt markets and frothy retail sentiment as warning signs.
As Durden reported, Pasquarello advised investors to consider “some gas left in the tank” but prepare for slimmer opportunities and summer slippage by rotating select long positions into call options expiring in late August.
Although Q3 doesn’t wrap until Sept. 30, 2025, BTC is currently sitting on a 9.98% gain. Going back to 2013, bitcoin has flipped a coin when it comes to third-quarter performance—half the time it climbs, half the time it dips. Fourth quarters, however, tend to tilt bullish, with a 66.67% chance of closing in the green—and historically, BTC often finishes Q4 with serious momentum.
