Key Takeaways:
ETH reclaims $3,500 and targets $3,700 amid strong buying pressure.
Weekly price up 20%; monthly gains exceed 41%.
Record ETF inflows and rising on-chain activity signal growing institutional interest.
Futures-driven momentum contrasts with flat spot volumes, raising sustainability concerns.
$4,000 remains the key psychological target, but near-term consolidation is likely.
Ethereum (ETH) has surged 20% over the past week, climbing above the key $3,500 resistance level and approaching the $3,700 supply zone. However, the rally is beginning to show signs of exhaustion as ETH faces significant resistance and futures activity outpaces spot buying.
On the technical side, ETH’s move above $3,500 signals renewed bullish momentum, fueled by growing market confidence and strong ETF inflows. According to on-chain data, a potential golden cross is forming, with the 100-day moving average nearing a crossover above the 200-day MA—typically seen as a long-term bullish signal.
Still, ETH now trades in a narrow range between $3,500 and $3,800, with multiple indicators pointing toward consolidation. The $3,700–$3,800 region represents a historically strong supply zone. If bulls fail to break through, the price could retrace toward $3,500, which may now act as short-term support.
Futures vs. Spot: Diverging Signals
A deeper look into Ethereum’s Futures Volume Bubble Map reveals heavy leveraged positioning, with $267 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours. Futures open interest has surged, signaling aggressive speculative trading. Meanwhile, the Spot Volume Bubble Map shows flat activity, highlighting a lack of confirmation from retail or long-term holders.
This divergence raises questions about the rally’s sustainability: without spot market participation, futures-led gains can be more volatile and prone to corrections.
Institutional Inflows and On-Chain Momentum
Fueling the bullish narrative, Ethereum ETFs have attracted a record $7.49 billion in inflows, and on-chain volume has jumped 280% in the last two weeks. Analysts believe this institutional momentum is critical for Ethereum’s next leg up.
However, short-term resistance remains formidable. While some analysts eye the $4,000 psychological level as the next major target, most expect a consolidation phase to play out before any decisive breakout.
Bullish Long-Term, Cautious Near-Term
Ethereum is up more than 41% over the past month, and macro tailwinds continue to favor risk assets. But as speculative activity overheats, a period of sideways trading or mild pullback is increasingly likely.
Unless spot buyers step in to confirm the rally and absorb sell pressure, ETH could remain range-bound between $3,500 and $3,800. A clean breakout above $4,000 would require both sustained ETF inflows and stronger spot demand.
