Bitcoin may defy seasonal trends and extend its record rally, with supply and demand dynamics stacking heavily in favor of the bulls, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Mena said the “structural imbalance between surging demand and a rapidly vanishing supply base makes a prolonged correction increasingly unlikely.” He highlighted that both exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) Bitcoin supplies have dropped to all-time lows, while institutional demand is only growing stronger.
New Buyers Outpace Miners as Bitcoin Hits $122,884
Bitcoin smashed a fresh all-time high of $122,884 on Monday, extending gains from its previous peak of $111,970 on July 9. The uptrend has persisted through one of the market’s historically slowest seasons — summer.
According to Bitfinex analysts, buyers are now more “price agnostic” than ever, absorbing newly mined BTC faster than miners can produce. In parallel, Bitwise head of research André Dragosch noted that retail search interest for “Bitcoin” remains surprisingly low despite the new records — a signal that this rally is driven more by institutional flows than by FOMO from retail traders.
ETFs and Corporate Treasuries Quietly Hoard Bitcoin
Mena pointed out that US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed several multiples of the BTC supply that will be mined this year. “That doesn’t even include corporate treasury buyers, who continue to add quietly in the background,” he said.
However, he did caution that macro risks could still inject turbulence. If President Trump’s proposed tariffs are harsher than expected or if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushes back anticipated rate cuts, Bitcoin and other risk assets could face a broader market repricing.
Despite these risks, Mena believes that once summer ends and market liquidity returns, upside momentum will likely resume. “What’s remarkable is that Bitcoin is setting new all-time highs during the most illiquid, seasonally weak part of the year,” he said, referencing CoinGlass data showing that Q3 has historically delivered just a 6.32% return for Bitcoin on average since 2013.
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