Solana ($SOL) finds itself at a critical technical juncture this week. While its impressive weekly gains show signs of cooling slightly (currently trading around $160, down 4% in 24 hours but up 8% weekly), a prominent analyst suggests a decisive move above a key resistance level could unlock staggering upside potential.

The Bullish Case: A Pattern Years in the Making

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has pinpointed a significant development on Solana's weekly chart. He argues that SOL has been forming a classic "cup-and-handle" pattern – a historically bullish technical setup – since mid-2022.

🔹   The Cup:This rounded bottom formation spanned much of 2022 and 2023, representing a period of accumulation after the bear market lows.

🔹   The Handle:A subsequent consolidation phase, characterized by a downward drift, took shape in early 2025.

The $170 Breakout Trigger

The crucial moment is now. Martinez emphasizes that a weekly close above $170 is the essential confirmation needed. This level represents the resistance point at the top of the pattern's "handle." A close above $170 would:

1.  Invalidate the Handle:Confirm the consolidation phase is complete.

2.  Confirm the Bullish Breakout: Signal a continuation of the long-term uptrend initiated by the cup formation.

The Potential Payoff: Fibonacci Points the Way

Should SOL achieve and sustain this breakout, the technical projections become highly ambitious. Utilizing Fibonacci extension levels derived from the depth of the cup pattern, potential price targets emerge:

🔹   Initial Target: $250

🔹   Secondary Target: $470

🔹   Third Target: $850

🔹   Ultimate Target: $2,000

Achieving the $2,000 target would represent an increase of over 1,100% from current levels, placing Solana in truly unprecedented valuation territory.

The Bearish Counterpoint: Real-World Headwinds

However, the path to $2,000 is far from guaranteed. SOL faces significant near-term headwinds:

1.  FTX/Alameda Token Movements: On-chain activity sparked concern when nearly 189,851 SOL (worth ~$31 million) was unstaked from wallets linked to the defunct FTX and Alameda Research and moved to BitGo Custody on July 11th. While not sold yet, similar movements in May 2024 preceded a 7% price drop. The market interprets these transfers as potential precursors to future liquidation, raising fears of substantial overhead supply hitting the market.

   NEW: FTX_Official has unstaked 189,851 $SOL ($31.32M) a few hours ago. — SolanaFloor  July 11, 2025

2.  Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Broader market sentiment soured following President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on July 12th, triggering risk aversion across cryptocurrencies. Solana, known for its higher beta (volatility relative to the market), tends to be particularly sensitive to such macro shocks, exacerbating the recent dip.

The Verdict: A Battle at $170

Solana stands at a crossroads. The technical setup, years in the making, paints a potentially explosive picture if $SOL can muster a decisive weekly close above $170. Such a move would validate a major bullish pattern and open the door to ambitious long-term targets, with $2,000 as the ultimate prize on the horizon.

Yet, the bears are present. The specter of large token sales from FTX/Alameda estates and ongoing macroeconomic fragility injects substantial near-term risk and selling pressure. The battle for the $170 level this week is not just about resistance; it's about confirming a multi-year bullish thesis or succumbing to potent bearish catalysts.

Traders and investors should watch the weekly close intently – it could very well dictate Solana's trajectory for months to come. Traders and investors should watch the weekly close intently – it could very well dictate Solana's trajectory for months to come. #Sol $SOL