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The first half of 2025 marked one of the most pronounced divergences between Bitcoin and Ethereum
The first half of 2025 marked one of the most pronounced divergences between Bitcoin and Ethereum, both in terms of price performance and investor perception. While Bitcoin consolidated its role as a macro‑asset and attracted record flows from institutional investors, Ethereum lagged behind, with the BTC/ETH ratio dropping to its lowest in recent years.
This article, based on data and analysis from the 2025 semi-annual report by CoinGlass, explains how and why Bitcoin has outpaced Ethereum, and what this trend means for the future.
BTC at highs, ETH lagging
At the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $112,000 in May, then maintained a stable range above $100,000. The growth was mainly fueled by inflows into BTC spot ETFs, which pushed AUM over $130 billion, reinforcing Bitcoin’s position as an institutional allocation asset.
Ethereum, on the other hand, after an initial peak of around $3,700 in January, fell below $1,400 in April and closed the semester around $2,500. A significantly lower performance, highlighting the market’s growing preference for BTC as a defensive investment in an uncertain macro context (source: CoinGlass).
ETH/BTC ratio at historic lows
The most telling data of the divergence is the ETH/BTC ratio. According to CoinGlass, this indicator dropped from 0.036 at the beginning of the year to about 0.017 in June, marking a loss of over 50%.
Such a low ETH/BTC ratio hasn’t been seen since 2020, reflecting the deterioration of relative confidence in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, as also highlighted in the recent analysis.
Reasons for the divergence
Institutional preference for BTC
Approved spot ETFs on Bitcoin have attracted a massive capital flow, especially from pension funds, wealth managers, and other institutional investors, who see BTC as a hedge against inflation and a regulated asset.Lack of catalysts on ETH
Ethereum has yet to benefit from the approval of a spot ETF with staking mechanisms. Although technical updates like Pectra have improved the network, they have not created a new compelling narrative for investors.Increasing BTC dominance
The dominance of Bitcoin has reached 65%, draining liquidity from the rest of the crypto market, including altcoins and ETH.Macro sentiment
In a risk-off context caused by geopolitical tensions and restrictive monetary policies, investors have reduced exposure to riskier assets like ETH and focused on BTC.
Impacts on derivatives
This divergence is also noticeable in the derivatives market:
The open interest of BTC futures has surpassed $70 billion, with CME leading among exchanges.
The open interest of ETH futures has surpassed $30 billion, still a positive figure, but relatively much more modest compared to BTC’s growth.
This asymmetry confirms that institutional demand is primarily concentrated on Bitcoin (source: CoinGlass).
Prospects for the BTC/ETH ratio
CoinGlass highlights that the BTC/ETH ratio could stabilize or even reverse the trend in the second half of the year, should spot ETFs with staking for Ethereum be approved.
However, in the short term, the narrative of BTC as an institutional macro‑asset seems destined to prevail, keeping ETH in a subordinate position, as also confirmed by a recent market report.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum
The first half of 2025 confirmed a truth that many suspected: in the new crypto cycle, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a mature and regulated asset, while Ethereum and altcoins remain anchored to retail and speculation.
The divergence between the two main crypto assets is set to influence investment strategies in the coming months, making it essential for investors to closely follow both macroeconomic dynamics and technological innovations within the Ethereum ecosystem.
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