Bitcoin is showing early signs of Q3 weakness as past mid-year trends return around the $101K zone again
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin may drop further and sees the next local bottom hitting by August or September
Traders noticed chart signals showing pullback is possible just like Q3 in 2023 and 2024 price cycles
Bitcoin may be entering a seasonal downturn as historical Q3 patterns begin to reflect familiar weakness, per a recent market chart shared online. According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin often begins to show downside signs by mid-June. He points to a recurring trend where previous cycles also weakened in the third quarter.
Source: X
On June 23, Cowen reaffirmed this on X, noting the timing aligns with earlier market behavior. He cited the same Q3 pattern that played out in prior years. The tweet, which included a TradingView chart, shows Bitcoin already retracing near $101,000.
Cowen suggests the next major local low could emerge around August or September. His post comes as investors monitor patterns tied to Bitcoin’s halving cycle. These insights have sparked discussions across crypto communities concerned with short-term volatility.
Analyst Charts Repeating Q3 Trend
Benjamin Cowen shared a weekly chart of Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar that outlines historical Q3 performance. The image displays significant price dips occurring around mid-year periods.
Labeled Q3 instances in 2023 and 2024 correspond with short-lived bearish phases before bullish recovery. The 2023 low, marked at under $25,000, happened just before a sharp upward reversal beginning in October.
In 2024, another consolidation followed by a quick rebound echoed that same Q3 timing. By early 2025, Bitcoin reached highs above $110,000. However, the current chart reveals another similar softening starting around late June.
Cowen’s caption reiterates his belief that Q3 often reflects weakness. He noted he had discussed this previously on YouTube and used past cycles to frame his prediction.
Market Reaction to Cowen’s Call
The post, viewed by over 189,000 users, drew attention for its timing and relevance. With Bitcoin at $101,089 during the post, the suggestion of a possible dip toward Q3 lows drew renewed caution.
Replies ranged from light skepticism to genuine inquiry about Cowen’s ability to forecast market turns. One user humorously asked how much Cowen profited by knowing the pattern ahead.
Others took a more analytical approach, referencing historical post-halving cycles. An additional comment included a chart that aligned 2020, 2016, and 2012 post-halving Q3 lows—further reinforcing Cowen’s timeline.
Traders reviewing the weekly candles noted that Bitcoin may already be forming a short-term top. With the chart displaying candles crossing below the short-term EMA, concerns about continued selling pressure have grown.
If previous Q3 cycles are any indication, support levels may be tested further into the quarter. This could potentially push Bitcoin toward deeper pullbacks before possible recovery in Q4.
Will Q3 Once Again Mark Bitcoin’s Local Low?
The timing of this chart-based prediction has raised broader questions within the trading community. Can Bitcoin’s Q3 dip be reliably predicted from previous halving trends?
Cowen’s chart analysis appears to reflect a cycle-based methodology, focusing on seasonal patterns rather than real-time events. The use of high-timeframe indicators offers some clarity for long-term investors.
Nevertheless, short-term players may find little relief if downside pressure increases. August and September, as previously suggested by Cowen, could serve as pivot months.
In recent years, mid-year months have become defining points for Bitcoin. Whether this cycle repeats remains to be seen.
