Is an Interest Rate Cut Just a Pipe Dream?

According to CME data, the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in June is 2.6%.

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.4%, which is almost certain.

📉 The outlook remains unchanged until July:

• 83.3% will remain unchanged

• Only 16.3% will be cut

• Expectations for a 50-basis-point cut are virtually nonexistent (0.4%)

In this environment, a swift recovery for risky assets appears unlikely.