Many in the community are hyped about FTX’s $5B payout tomorrow (May 30).

The number sounds big, but I don’t think it represents a direct, massive capital injection into the market.

To put it in perspective, $5B equals:

📍 0.14% of crypto market cap ($3.5T)

📍 3.97% of daily trading volume ($126B)

📍 2% of circulating stablecoin supply ($250B)

It sounds large, but it won’t move the entire market. That said, liquidity still matters.

I don’t expect a full-on bull breakout, as a significant portion of FTX claims were bought by TradFi funds like Baupost, Oaktree, and Attestor, who are unlikely to ape memecoins, but to exit. Some funds may rotate into crypto, but a good chunk will likely just cash out.

In a very optimistic case, if $2.5B (50%) flows into $BTC (~3.3% of daily volume), that could push $BTC +1–3% to around $109K.

Altcoins may be the wildcard. Smaller caps could see 5–10%+ pops if traders rotate into high-beta narratives, but that depends on retail participation.

While I don’t expect price impact across stablecoins, this liquidity may power DeFi flows, RWA narratives, and passive yield demand (think: #BGUSD).

The payout will take 1-3 days. Watch this weekend and next week for short-term volatility. Keep an eye on on-chain stablecoin flows and exchange inflows to track market direction.

#NFA & #DYOR 👀