📊 Wave Count & Channel-Based Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
🔵 Wave 4 Structure (Completed)
Wave 4 developed as a classic ABC corrective structure to the downside.
🔹 Wave A: Initial decline with impulsive characteristics.
🔹 Wave B: Partial retracement with overlapping, corrective traits.
🔹 Wave C: A clean final leg completing at the 1.236 Fibonacci extension of Wave A, which is a common target for a C-wave.
📍 Wave 4 and Wave C terminate exactly at:
1.236 Fib extension, or approximately 0.306 from Wave C's origin — as defined in Elliott Wave theory
.
This matches the expanding channel structure described in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be a flat or zigzag... target range between 23.6% and 50%, but extensions (e.g., 1.236) are valid for C-wave finalization.”
🟡 Current Setup: Anticipating a Wave 5 Move
We now shift from the completed corrective Wave 4 to a new advance phase, expected to unfold as another ABC corrective structure to the upside (per the yellow count):
🔶 Wave A (Expected Now)
The beginning of Wave A is currently developing.
Based on structure, Wave A can unfold as either a 5-wave impulse or a 3-wave zigzag:
"The only micro structure for direct upside continuation I could think of here is that this here was an Awave... this was a Bwave and this is a Cwave... but there is just no five-wave move up right on the smaller time frame" (Video transcription)
Since there’s no confirmed 5-wave count yet, the current move is assumed to be part of Wave A, possibly still forming sub-waves.
🔸 Invalidation and Confirmation Levels
The key upside level to break: $0.9912
A move above this level invalidates the C-wave down scenario and confirms bullish continuation.
From the project video:
“Getting above that level would invalidate the idea that a C-wave to the downside has started...”
Once broken, the target for the current bullish Wave A or full 3rd wave remains unchanged at:
$1.17, previously defined as the next target for bullish continuation
🔺 Channel Structure & Confluence
The contracting diagonal from the start of the chart aligns wave 5 and wave C tops — both terminated at the same horizontal resistance level.
Wave 4's expanding correction supports this shift in volatility before Wave 5 begins, as outlined in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be an expanding triangle or flat... diagonal patterns often create increased volatility before reversal”
✅ Conclusion
Wave 4 has completed via an ABC down, ending at the 1.236 Fib extension of the internal Wave C.
We are now in a potential ABC to the upside, with Wave A currently in formation.
Awaiting confirmation of 5-wave completion in Wave A.
Break above 0.9912 triggers continuation to $1.17 target.
All trendline structures, wave counts, and Fib levels are in strict alignment with the educational material and screenshots.