According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs economists anticipate that inflation driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff agenda will stabilize and not persist for an extended period. Analyst David Mericle noted that the U.S. economy is entering this tariff cycle in a weaker state compared to the sustained inflation periods that began in 2021 and 2022, with more slack in the labor market.
Mericle explained that previous inflation was also fueled by fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, a factor that may have less impact in 2025. He highlighted that both official data and anecdotal indicators show that actual inflation has remained relatively stable so far.
Mericle predicts that the most severe period of inflation could conclude after the August data is released, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by the end of the year.