According to BlockBeats, analysts from BiyaPay suggest that Bitcoin may experience a historic breakthrough in May, potentially challenging the significant resistance level of $100,000. Key factors driving this trend include a substantial influx of institutional funds into ETFs, the halving cycle effect, and macroeconomic hedging demand.
Between April 20 and 26, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.1 billion, setting a weekly record. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT fund has surpassed its gold ETF in size, becoming the primary channel for traditional funds entering the market. Standard Chartered has noted that Bitcoin is increasingly replacing gold as a preferred hedge, with the ETF fund siphoning effect creating a pattern of institutional support followed by retail participation.
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically experiences explosive growth 12-18 months after a halving event. Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price surged by 536%. Analysts predict that the peak of this cycle may occur in May 2025, with a target price of $156,000. If Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 in May, it could trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, accelerating the price surge.
Additionally, a weakening U.S. dollar and risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds have increased Bitcoin's appeal as a safe haven. Early April saw market volatility due to tariff policy rumors, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic risks. The derivatives market shows a mixed picture, with retail funding rates becoming cautious, but the two-month futures premium rising to 6.5%, indicating continued institutional accumulation. MicroStrategy recently added 15,000 Bitcoins at an average price of $92,700, underscoring long-term confidence.
Moreover, Bitcoin's technical independence is strengthening, with its correlation to the S&P 500 dropping to 29%, reinforcing its 'digital gold' status. Continued ETF inflows could build momentum for a breakthrough, while outflows would test market resilience. Analysts advise investors to monitor on-chain data and institutional movements, avoiding high-leverage pursuits. The market is currently awaiting validation during May's critical window, with the dual forces of institutional and cyclical influences potentially reshaping the valuation framework for crypto assets.
