🚨 FOMC Decision Incoming: Is This the Pivot Everyone’s Been Waiting For?
The Fed’s big rate decision is set for tomorrow at 2 PM ET, and markets are already pricing in a 25 bps cut, so don’t expect any major surprise there.
But the real action starts at 2:30 PM ET, when Jerome Powell steps up to speak — and that’s where things could get interesting.
Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes:
The job market is clearly cooling off.
Inflation (CPI) came in lower than expected.
U.S. economic activity is slowing, partly due to the government shutdown.
And for the first time in 2025, bank reserves at the Fed have dropped below $3 trillion — a hint that the Fed may soon end Quantitative Tightening (QT).
Even big players like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs are predicting that the QT program could officially end at the October FOMC meeting.
If that happens, it could be the first real “risk-on” signal since Q3 2019, when the last QT phase ended — and we all remember what came next.
All signs point to a dovish Powell, and the market seems ready to rally once that narrative hits the wires.
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