Geopolitics

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has lashed out at European countries, accusing them of making Russia a scapegoat for their own economic failures. "Europe has succumbed to hysteria. They're creating the image of Russia as a perpetual enemy to cover up internal problems," Lavrov said.
According to him, the EU is strategically using anti-Russian rhetoric to distract its citizens from rising social issues and economic shortcomings. "Instead of fixing domestic crises, public funds and resources are being funneled into militarization," he added. "Europe is arming up."
Lavrov further accused the West of being directly involved in the war in Ukraine. He claims that provocations from Kyiv and attacks on civilian areas are being backed by Western governments behind the scenes. He warned, "We won't stand idly by. We will respond accordingly. Our goals remain unchanged."

Pinning Hopes on Trump and a Shift in Policy
At the same time, Lavrov expressed hope that a return of Donald Trump to the White House could lead to a less aggressive U.S. foreign policy compared to the current Biden administration. "Trump's team showed a willingness to listen and seek compromise. I hope Europe takes notice," he said.
He suggested that a political shift in the U.S. could improve diplomatic relations and urged Europe to avoid blindly following the “reckless course” that leads to conflict.

China Distancing Itself: The Beijing Façade Is Cracking?
Meanwhile, across the globe, another drama is unfolding. China, long seen as a declared “partner” of Russia, appears to be pulling away. While relations between Beijing and Europe are strained, Chinese leadership is trying to keep trade channels open. This week, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a “frank and in-depth” video call with EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. The key topics were economic cooperation and rising tensions after the EU extended sanctions to include several Chinese banks for aiding Russia.
Beijing strongly objected to the EU's latest blacklist, which included seven Chinese entities as part of its 18th sanctions package targeting Moscow. Chinese officials slammed the move as protectionist and unfairly punitive toward China’s industrial surplus.

Putin and Xi: A Friendship for Show?
On the surface, relations between Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jlnping have long seemed unshakable. The two “best friends” embraced on Red Square, stood side by side at parades, and Xi has visited Russia eleven times since 2013. Their meetings have been frequent, warm, and symbolic.
Experts warn, however, that the relationship is more about strategy than genuine alliance. “Outwardly friends, inwardly rivals,” summarizes analyst Mathieu Boulegue. According to him, the Moscow-Beijing partnership is more of a calculated alignment than true cooperation.
Although Putin is planning another trip to China this fall, signals from Beijing suggest a cooling of relations. China is trying to stay neutral, maintain trade ties with both the West and Russia—and avoid being dragged into Moscow’s growing isolation.

#russia , #Europe , #china , #Geopolitics , #TRUMP

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Tensions between the European Union and China are rising as a major diplomatic showdown is set to take place in Beijing this week. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and new European Council President António Costa will sit down with Chinese President Xi Jlnping. This high-stakes meeting comes amid intensifying geopolitical friction, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasingly bitter trade disputes.

Trade War Heats Up
The EU has voiced growing concerns over a surge in cheap Chinese imports — including electric vehicles, candles, and tires — which it claims distort fair competition in European markets. In response, Beijing has not only criticized these claims but hit back with its own countermeasures, such as limiting purchases of European medical equipment.
Europe also disapproves of China's dominance in rare earth supply chains and its continued support for Russia. EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas put it bluntly: “China is a key enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

📉 Confidence Declines as Sanctions Increase
Last year, the European Commission launched over 25 trade defense investigations into Chinese exports — nearly four times more than the previous year. At the same time, Brussels imposed new sanctions on companies linked to Russia’s war machine, including two Chinese banks. China's Ministry of Commerce slammed the move, warning it could “severely damage” economic and trade relations.
Beijing is increasingly concerned that Brussels may be aligning with Washington’s strategy of economic isolation. Chinese officials are closely watching for signs of a potential EU-US trade pact that could form a united front against China.

🤝 Summit as a Test of Relations
China has maintained an upbeat official tone ahead of the summit, calling it a “meeting of two civilizations promoting a multipolar world and cultural diversity.” Beijing hopes to portray the event as a sign that Europe is choosing a more independent path away from Trump-style hardline US policy.
But expectations in Europe remain modest. Senior EU officials say that even “an open dialogue” would be considered a success. Abigaël Vasselier of German think tank MERICS warns: “This summit won't be about making deals. It’s going to be a tough session.”

🧭 Disputes Over Russia and Geopolitics
China defends its alignment with Moscow as a “strategic balance.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi argued that a Russian defeat in Ukraine would likely shift US pressure back toward China and the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the EU is alarmed that 80% of all dual-use goods headed to Russia come through China — a serious security concern.
At the G7 summit in June, von der Leyen openly accused Beijing of weaponizing its monopoly on rare earth elements to undermine competitors in critical industries. The EU is increasingly viewing China’s economic might not just as a trade challenge — but as a strategic threat.

#Eu , #china , #TradeWars , #Geopolitics , #TRUMP

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Donald Trump’s administration is ramping up pressure on China—this time by targeting indirect shipments of Chinese goods through third countries, which experts warn could jeopardize up to 70% of China’s exports to the U.S.. If implemented, these plans could have severe consequences not only for Chinese industry but also for global supply chains.

📉 China Under Scrutiny: Relying on Mexico, Vietnam, and the EU
According to Bloomberg Economics, China has increasingly relied on re-export routes through countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and the European Union to bypass direct U.S. tariffs.
🔹 In 2023, 22% of Chinese exports to the U.S. went through third countries—up from 14% in 2017.

🔹 If Trump’s administration enforces stricter customs and supply chain rules, up to 70% of China’s exports to the U.S. could be at risk.

🔍 Trump’s New Push: Tariffs and Bilateral Trade Pressure
In recent weeks, the White House has sent warning letters to several governments, demanding new bilateral trade deals by August 1. If not, higher tariffs will be imposed on goods arriving via China, even if they pass through other countries.
📌 The potential crackdown could affect a wide range of products that enter the U.S. under the “guise” of local production. Top at-risk routes include Mexico, Vietnam, and the EU.
Although details remain scarce, the message is clear: anything suspected to be Chinese-made could face higher duties.

🌐 China’s Economy at Stake: Over 21% of GDP in Danger
Experts warn that such moves could cut over 21% of China’s GDP, especially if trade flows slow or shift elsewhere. Furthermore, global partners may begin avoiding Chinese trade routes out of fear of U.S. retaliation.
“Third-country flows have helped cushion the impact of existing tariffs. Stricter monitoring could amplify the damage,” wrote Bloomberg economists Chang Shu, David Qu, and Rana Sajedi.

🧲 Rare Earth Magnet Exports Surge—But At a Cost
While crackdowns loom, exports of rare earth magnets from China to the U.S. surged 660% in June, hitting 353 metric tons, up from 47 tons in May.
This surge followed a breakthrough agreement between Washington and Beijing, which led chipmaker Nvidia to resume exports of its H20 AI chips.
However, tensions remain. In early April, China added several critical minerals to its export control list in response to U.S. tariffs. Despite June’s jump, overall exports of rare earth magnets are still 38% lower than in June 2024.

🔹 Summary: Trump’s crackdown on indirect Chinese exports could destabilize the country’s trade engine and send shockwaves through global commerce. It’s a clash of geopolitics, tariffs, and tech dominance.

#TradeWars , #china , #TRUMP , #Tariffs , #Geopolitics

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Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad acknowledged on Monday that a trade agreement between Brazil and the United States may not be finalized before the critical August 1 deadline, when the Trump administration plans to impose 50% tariffs on a range of Brazilian exports.
“Yes, that could happen,” Haddad said in an interview with local radio station CBN. However, he noted that Brazil is still awaiting an official response from Washington to the trade proposal package submitted back in May.

Trump’s Tariffs Tied to Bolsonaro Case and “Unfair Practices”
President Trump announced the tariffs earlier this month, citing what he described as political persecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently on trial for an alleged coup attempt. Trump also accused Brazil of engaging in “unfair trade practices.”
The announcement came as a shock — especially given that U.S.–Brazil trade relations have been relatively stable. The U.S. has long been a key export destination for Brazilian goods, including oil, steel, coffee, orange juice, and aircraft. Moreover, the U.S. runs a trade surplus with Brazil, leading Brazilian officials to claim the tariffs are politically motivated and economically unjustified.

Brazil Prepares Contingency Plans for Impacted Industries
Haddad confirmed that Brazil is readying emergency measures in case Washington moves forward with the tariffs. These include efforts to diversify export markets and reduce dependence on U.S. trade.
“If we can find alternative buyers, we might be able to reroute more than half of our current exports,” Haddad said, though he acknowledged it would “take time.”
Several industries are bracing for impact:
🔹 Embraer – the world’s third-largest aircraft maker, heavily reliant on U.S. sales and partnerships

🔹 Steel producers – exporters of raw materials and semi-finished products to American buyers
Haddad stated the government may offer targeted financial support to the most affected sectors but emphasized that fiscal responsibility will be maintained. “We won’t undermine our financial foundations,” he said, promising all aid would be strategic and limited.

Private Sector Braces for Turbulence
Brazil’s business community is on edge. Many worry how quickly new trade routes and buyers can be secured, especially for highly regulated products like aircraft and processed foods.
Some of the next steps during this crisis may hinge on how effectively Soybean Brazil’s diplomatic outreach can strengthen U.S. ties and prevent a full-blown trade clash in the coming days.

Lula Urges Calm, Readiness in Face of Tariff Threat
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has taken a firm but composed approach. While warning that retaliatory measures are possible if the U.S. moves forward, he made it clear he does not want unnecessary conflict.
Speaking at a public event in São Paulo, Lula said Brazil will defend its sovereignty and economy. “If the other side imposes tariffs, we will respond — but always in a way that honors our values and international relationships,” he declared.
Finance Minister Haddad reiterated Lula’s stance, clarifying that Brazil will not target American businesses operating in the country. The government’s response, he stressed, will be principled, not provocative. This is not about revenge, but about fair trade.

Countdown to Conflict?
With August 1 fast approaching, the stakes are high. If negotiations collapse, Latin America's largest economy will be forced to adapt quickly to a new trade environment, which could severely disrupt corporate alliances and export strategies.
For now, Brazil remains cautious but alert — watching, waiting, and preparing for what may come next.

#brasil , #TradeWars , #TRUMP , #Tariffs , #Geopolitics

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Germany and France are ramping up pressure on the European Union to prepare retaliatory tariffs against the United States. The reason? A new wave of trade sanctions introduced by Donald Trump’s administration. If the White House doesn’t back off by August 1, transatlantic trade relations could be severely strained.

🔹 Germany’s sudden shift: Once an advocate of diplomacy, Berlin has changed course. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to host French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin for high-level talks on a united front.
🔹 Secret Brussels meetings: Behind closed doors, EU ambassadors have been meeting with European Commission officials. One key item on the agenda is the potential activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) – a powerful yet never-before-used tool allowing the EU to strike directly at companies from foreign nations engaging in economic pressure.

ACI: A Sharp Weapon Dividing the EU
If the EU proceeds with the ACI, it could impose:
🔹 bans on U.S. companies participating in EU public contracts

🔹 the revocation of intellectual property protections for U.S. firms

🔹 frozen trade in targeted sectors
While Germany and France support the move, others remain cautious. “It would be nuclear,” said one diplomat. Another likened the strategy to a weapon that “can be either a bazooka or a sniper rifle” depending on how it’s deployed.

A €100 Billion Tariff Plan: A Step-by-Step Retaliation
Alongside the ACI, the EU has a more traditional plan of action:
🔹 First wave – €21 billion: If the Trump administration doesn’t pull back by August 1, the EU will hit goods like chicken, jeans, and energy products with tariffs. Effective date: August 6.
🔹 Second wave – €72 billion: This round targets Boeing aircraft, bourbon, and other major exports. A vote is set for August 6, with possible enforcement the following day.
🔹 Third wave – U.S. digital services: The Commission is drafting a list of tech-sector targets, including digital services taxes and levies on online advertising — aimed squarely at large U.S. platforms.
Despite these plans, EU officials still hope the U.S. will blink first. “No one wants a downward spiral in transatlantic trade,” one diplomat said.

Brussels: Talks Ongoing, But Time Is Running Out
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that “August 1 is a tough deadline”, warning that tariffs will “boomerang back at a reciprocal level” if no agreement is reached. EU officials say this confirms the U.S. isn’t open to compromise.
Tensions escalated further when Trump rejected a proposed framework deal that would have locked in current 10% tariffs. Instead, Washington wants a permanent increase to 15% or more. The EU, in turn, asked for exemptions from 25% tariffs on cars and 50% on steel and aluminum — a request that was denied.
For now, no formal retaliation has begun. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said on Tuesday, “We are focused on negotiations for the time being — that remains our priority.” But the clock is ticking, and the ball is in Washington’s court.

#Eu , #TradeWars , #TRUMP , #Tariffs , #Geopolitics

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On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement between the United States and Japan, calling it “the biggest deal ever” on his Truth Social platform. At the core of this agreement are new 15% reciprocal tariffs on all Japanese exports to the U.S. In addition, Trump claimed that Japan would invest $550 billion into the U.S. economy and that America would “receive 90% of the profit.”
The announcement follows weeks of economic pressure and tariff threats aimed at forcing Japan into concessions. Just days earlier, Trump sent a formal notice to Tokyo warning that, without a deal by August 1, all Japanese exports to the U.S. would face a 25% tariff. This came after his earlier proclamation on April 2, during “Liberation Tariff Day,” when he introduced a 24% rate as part of his aggressive trade policy.
The final deal now establishes a 15% tariff rate under what Trump calls a “reciprocal agreement” designed to ensure fair trade conditions between the two countries. According to Trump, Japan has agreed to open its markets to U.S. exporters in sectors such as cars, trucks, rice, agricultural products, and more.

Bizarre Promises, but No Details
While Trump touted the deal as a massive win promising $550 billion in investment and hundreds of thousands of jobs, the White House has provided no official documentation supporting these figures. There is no timeline, breakdown of the investment, job creation plan, or explanation of the “90% profit” claim. This lack of transparency has sparked concern among economists and market analysts.
One particularly sensitive area is the auto industry, a key pillar of Japan’s exports. In 2024, Japanese cars accounted for 28.3% of the country’s total exports. Trump’s new agreement doesn’t remove the existing 25% tariff on vehicles—already applied to all countries—but rather wraps it into a broader framework of reciprocity.

Markets React, but Investors Remain Cautious
Markets responded immediately, albeit modestly:
🔹 Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures in Chicago jumped to 40,185 from a previous close of 39,774.92

🔹 Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 futures rose to 8,681 from 8,677.20

🔹 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures increased to 25,321 from 25,130.03

🔹 U.S. indices: S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, Dow Jones futures gained 99 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures remained flat
Although there was some market movement, investor sentiment was more cautious than celebratory. Attention has now shifted to the upcoming earnings season, with major updates expected from tech giants like Alphabet (Google) and Tesla after markets close on Wednesday. These will be the first key indicators of performance from large-cap tech firms this season. Earlier in the day, Hasbro is set to report, followed by Chipotle Mexican Grill and Mattel.

What’s Next: Housing Market and Tech Sector in Focus
Beyond corporate earnings, investors are also watching for U.S. housing data, expected Wednesday morning. These figures could offer a clearer view of the housing market’s trajectory—currently considered by some analysts to be the most affordable in years. This data may have an impact on consumer behavior and broader market sentiment in the coming weeks.

#TRUMP , #Japan , #usa , #USPolitics , #Geopolitics

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While most Western nations keep Russia in sanctions-induced isolation, China has become Moscow's key economic lifeline. In the first half of 2025, the value of Russian precious metal exports to China nearly doubled to $1 billion, driven primarily by a surge in gold prices.

An 80% year-over-year increase, according to Trade Data Monitor, reveals that Russian shipments of gold, silver, and other ores to China are climbing in step with rising metal prices. Gold alone has soared 28% since the start of the year as investors seek a safe haven amid global uncertainty.

China Welcomes What the West Rejects
Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was cut off from major global markets like London and New York. But China remained open — and today it's the gateway for Russian miners. Russia still produces over 300 tons of gold annually, making it the second-largest gold producer in the world.
In addition to gold, palladium and platinum are also flowing into China, driven by demand in its manufacturing sector. Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s top producer of these metals, has shifted entirely to eastern markets — and the strategy is paying off: palladium is up 38% this year, platinum an impressive 59%.

Gold as a Safe Haven for Russian Households
As trust in the ruble continues to decline, Russian consumers are turning to gold. 2024 saw record-high retail demand for coins, bars, and other forms of physical metal. For many households, gold has become an alternative savings account in an era of inflation and currency volatility.

Weak Dollar and Global Chaos Push Gold Higher
On Monday, spot gold prices climbed to $3,369.02 per ounce, while U.S. futures hit $3,376.40. A key factor: a 0.2% decline in the U.S. dollar, making gold more accessible to non-dollar buyers.
“The dollar started the week on a soft note, opening the door for gold,” said analyst Tim Waterer. “As we get closer to the key August 1 tariff deadline with no new deals, gold is likely to break above $3,400 — and possibly beyond.”

Global Uncertainty Intensifies
🔹 Trump’s tariff deadline is approaching fast.

🔹 Fed Governor Waller hints at possible rate cuts.

🔹 ECB is expected to keep rates steady at 2%.

🔹 Japan's ruling coalition lost its upper house majority.
This cocktail of uncertainty is creating the perfect storm for a metals rally. Investors are fleeing to safety — into gold, silver, and platinum — as political tensions rise and traditional returns fade.

#russia , #commodities , #Geopolitics , #MarketVolatility , #china

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China is once again strengthening control over a critical industry — this time, it's rare earth elements, essential for everything from electric vehicles and advanced weaponry to semiconductors and wind turbines. Beijing has quietly issued its first mining quotas for 2025 without any public announcement or disclosure of volumes, signaling tighter state supervision over a market heavily reliant on Chinese exports.

Quotas Issued in Silence, Without Explanation
Unlike in previous years, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology typically published quota data on its website in early months, this time the decision was made behind closed doors. According to Reuters, authorized mining and processing companies were instructed to remain silent — reportedly for security reasons.
No detailed breakdown of mining or smelting allocations was made public. Analysts say this reflects Beijing’s growing concern over releasing sensitive data that highlights its dominance over global supply chains and may serve as a tool in trade negotiations, especially with the US and EU.

China Dominates Rare Earths — and It Knows It
Rare earths comprise 17 metals essential for modern technologies, batteries, electric motors, and advanced military systems. China is by far the largest global producer and processor of these strategic resources.
Last year, China issued rare earth mining quotas totaling 270,000 metric tons — a 5.9% year-over-year increase, down from a 21.4% rise in 2023. Smelting and separation quotas for 2024 were set at 254,000 tons, representing a 4.2% increase from the previous year.

U.S. Imports Surged in June After Licensing Bottlenecks Resolved
After months of disruptions, rare earth exports and magnets from China to the United States surged in June. China’s customs data showed that shipments jumped to 353 metric tons — up 660% from just 46 tons in May.
This spike came after late-June negotiations aimed at clearing a backlog of export licenses for rare earth metals and magnets bound for U.S. customers. In parallel, chipmaker Nvidia announced it would resume sales of its AI-powered H20 processors in China.

Exports Rebound But Still Trail Last Year’s Levels
Despite the monthly rise, June’s overall export volume remained below 2024 levels. China exported 3,188 tons of rare earth permanent magnets in June — up from 1,238 tons in May, but still 38% lower than the 5,158 tons exported in June 2024.
In the first half of 2025, total Chinese exports of rare earth magnets dropped by 18.9% year-over-year to 22,319 tons. Market observers expect volumes to climb in July as more companies receive the necessary licenses.

#china , #Geopolitics , #TradeWars , #TradingCommunity , #worldnews

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On July 9, Donald Trump shook the international stage with a bold move: he threatened to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports unless the country's courts dropped charges against his political ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The ultimatum sparked outrage—not only within the Brazilian government but especially among the justices of the country’s Supreme Federal Court, who found themselves at the center of a sovereignty crisis.
Trump’s warning came during the court’s scheduled month-long recess. Despite several judges being abroad, they reacted swiftly. According to Bloomberg, emergency calls were made almost immediately after Trump’s statement. This wasn’t just a diplomatic clash—it was seen as a direct interference in Brazil’s judicial system.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees Bolsonaro’s case, promptly joined his fellow judges to coordinate a response. Their goal was to refute Trump’s assertion that Bolsonaro was the victim of a political “witch hunt.”
However, the plan for the court to issue the first official response changed after Chief Justice Luis Roberto Barroso consulted with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula argued that the political establishment should take the lead.
That same evening, Lula issued a sharp rebuke: “Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions.” The message was clear—there was no collusion between the executive and judicial branches, and the U.S. president had crossed a line by attempting to pressure Brazil's legal system. Ironically, Trump’s intervention only intensified the judicial proceedings.

Judges Push Forward—Despite Recess
Rather than slow the case down, the Brazilian judiciary accelerated it. Even during the recess, Moraes ensured the case remained active. On July 14, the Attorney General’s Office submitted its final arguments, calling for Bolsonaro to be convicted for his alleged involvement in the January 8th coup attempt. A verdict is expected shortly after the court resumes in August.
Meanwhile, Trump doubled down in a public letter to Bolsonaro, writing, “I sincerely hope the Brazilian government changes course, stops attacking political opponents, and ends its absurd censorship regime.” He added that he would be “watching the situation closely.”
Brazil’s top court responded with an order for Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor, citing flight risk. The U.S. didn’t back down either—the State Department revoked visas for Moraes and several other judges involved in the case.

Mounting Pressure from Washington and the Right
Tensions between the two countries didn’t begin overnight. Earlier this year, U.S. diplomats warned Brazil that continued investigations into Bolsonaro’s alleged attempts to overturn the 2022 election could harm trade relations. The court dismissed the warning at the time, underestimating the extent of U.S. involvement—especially after Trump’s return to the White House.
Justice Moraes has drawn harsh criticism from right-wing media and politicians, particularly for his actions against disinformation campaigns on platforms like X, Facebook, and Rumble. He even engaged in a public feud with Elon Musk.
Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo spent months lobbying in Washington for sanctions against Brazilian judges. Last week, he visited D.C. with conservative commentator Paulo Figueiredo, grandson of a former military dictator. After meetings with State Department and White House officials, they reported receiving a firm warning.
“The message was unanimous: There will be no concessions unless Brazil takes the first step,” Figueiredo said. “We were told that if this continues, President Trump may take additional actions that could impact financial markets.”

Defending Democracy—The Court Holds the Line
Brazil’s judiciary is standing firm. For the justices, this is about defending democracy—especially after January 8, 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the Supreme Court, Congress, and presidential palace in scenes eerily reminiscent of the U.S. Capitol riot on January 6. But while America responded politically, Brazil has chosen the legal route.
In June 2023, Brazil’s electoral court—composed of rotating Supreme Court justices—banned Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years for spreading lies about the voting system. When federal police recommended indictment for an attempted coup in November 2024, the Supreme Court quickly approved it and prepared for trial.
Now, as Trump ramps up pressure, Brazil’s top judges are sending a clear message: democracy and judicial independence are not for sale—especially not under the threat of economic coercion.

#TRUMP , #Brazil , #Politics , #TradeWars , #Geopolitics

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