CryptoHODL

#CryptoHODL

Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $111.8k, only to retreat to $103.2k as selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) began to weigh on momentum. While key support levels at $103.7k and $95.6k offer near-term stability, the market is now navigating a crucial phase of profit-taking and rebalancing by seasoned investors.

The Anatomy of the Latest Rally

The latest surge was primarily spot-driven, with clear accumulation clusters forming at $81–85k, $93–96k, and $102–104k. These zones have transitioned into key areas of support, potentially absorbing selling pressure in the short term.

Using the Cumulative Volume Delta (CBD) Heatmap, it’s evident that the rally was supported by aggressive spot buyers. However, as price momentum faltered, historical accumulation zones began flipping into distribution zones, particularly in the $25k–31k and $60k–73k ranges. These older cohorts, who accumulated in previous cycles, are now realizing gains and dampening further upside.

Market Dynamics and Key Levels

On-chain models offer a high-resolution view of potential inflection points. Cost basis quantiles and Short-Term Holder (STH) statistical bands highlight three important levels:

Primary Support: $103.7k (0.95 quantile)

Secondary Support: $95.6k (0.85 quantile)

Resistance: $114.8k (+1 SD band)

The STH cost basis itself sits at $97.1k, reflecting the average entry price for newer buyers. These levels collectively define the immediate structure of the market, indicating where sentiment may shift decisively.

The Role of Profit-Taking

Realized profits recently spiked to $1.47B/day, marking the fifth major profit-taking wave in the current cycle. Notably, the majority of this selling pressure is coming from long-term holders who have held for over 12 months. Historically, such spikes often coincide with local market tops or periods of consolidation.

Interestingly, analysis of the 90-day moving average of net realized profit (normalized by market cap) shows that while profit-taking remains significant, it has become more tempered compared to previous cycles. This suggests a shift from boom-and-bust euphoria to structured capital rotation within a maturing asset class.

Shifts in Cohort Behavior

Data shows a clear shift in who is driving profit-taking. Since the 2015–2018 cycle, LTHs have steadily accounted for a larger share of realized profits at market tops. At the most recent peak, LTHs were realizing over $1B per day—three times the realized profits of short-term holders. This pattern underscores that it’s older, conviction-driven investors who are shaping the current top formation.

By isolating the realized profit from the >12-month cohort (excluding 6–12 month holders), the current wave of selling becomes even more apparent. This older segment of investors has deeper profit margins and historically signals the transition to a distribution phase, rather than the start of a fresh leg higher.

Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

Bitcoin’s climb to $111.8k has been met with growing resistance, as data reveals that earlier buyers and long-term holders are actively taking profits. Key accumulation zones from previous cycles have become supply-dense regions, shaping a market that now hinges on critical support at $103.7k and $95.6k. Meanwhile, resistance at $114.8k remains a crucial test for any renewed bullish momentum.

Ultimately, the market’s next move will be determined by whether demand can absorb the elevated selling pressure from seasoned investors. The coming weeks will reveal if Bitcoin can regroup and continue its uptrend—or if this distribution phase is the precursor to a deeper reset.