August PCE came in hotter than July but cooler than feared. Headline up 0.3% month-over-month, matching estimates. Core PCE—the Fed's preferred gauge—rose 0.2%, actually below the 0.3% consensus.
Both measures had been 0.1% the month prior. So yes, a tick up. But not the kind that changes the game.
Markets hate surprises. This wasn't one. The Fed gets room to breathe, maybe even ease, without looking reckless. Inflation isn't dead, but it's not roaring back either.
Still, don't mistake one pr...
PCE day, the print is out. What was known before the number: our tape holds 159 PCE days since 2013 — 52% closed green, median +0.29%, so the print sets the mood rather than the direction. Options priced a quiet day: DVOL 35.1, lower than 98% of our 2,016-day tape. The 8-of-10 band for today sits at ±2.02%. Consensus expected 3.7%. The number writes its own close, and our calendar page will score it tomorrow.