GM and welcome to another episode of my weekly BTC analysis article.
Inside, you’ll find a recap of last week’s market generated information, dominant concern, key insights for the week ahead, and the key levels I’m focusing on.
Let’s get into it.
Last Week Recap
The week started off weak, with sellers continuing to dominate the market. On 2/11, sellers were active from the early hours of the opening period as the market one timeframed lower.
3/11 - Mid Term Election
On 3/11, during the early hours of the opening, the market showed a glimpse of buying activity. However, the buying failed as sellers stepped in and extended price below the 2/11 range low.
Buyers responded weakly, pushing price back toward the 2/11 POC area before reversing. The market closed with buyers losing strength.
4/11 Participant Reaction for the Election
On 4/11, the market reacted to the election. Price one-timeframed lower during the early hours of the opening period, taking out the previous day’s weak low.
However, buyers stepped in, leaving a good excess low and extending the market back above the 29/10 POC area. This move left multiple single prints on the profile.
5/11 Dump Day.
On 5/11, the market entered a “dump day.” From the Asian session through the mid-London session, price traded sideways and failed to take out the 4/11 high.
Participants then panicked and sold following bearish news, including reports that the Trump family had sold 4,500 BTC. The selling was emotional, repairing the 4/11 single-print area while forming its own single prints.
The day ended as a double distribution day. The high was poor, while the low was weak. The POC did not migrate with price as it moved lower, making it a low confidence day.
6/11 - 7/11 profile
On 6/11, the market came into balance and traded sideways for most of the session. During the late hours, the market broke below the 15/09 poor low.
On 7/11, the market traded as an inside day, with neither buyers nor sellers dominating the session.
8/11 New Weekly Low Formed
On 8/11, a new weekly low formed. The market traded sideways for most of the day, but during the late hours, sellers pushed price below the 6/11 weak low and through the 21/08 first single print area.
Buyers stepped in, leaving a good buying tail and pushing price back to 74.8k.
Market Generated profile for the week
5/11 poor high
6/11 poor high
7/11 weak high
8/11 weak high
Dominant Concern
3/11 US mid term election
The Week Ahead
Despite the responsive buying on 8/11, the market remains weak, with sellers still dominant.
Dominant Concerns
10/11 CPI news
13/11 PPI news
Market-generated information from last week is brought forward into this week’s analysis.
Broader Market Overview
Monthly Timeframe
Longer-term timeframe participants( sellers) remain the most dominant force in the current monthly timeframe. It remains to be seen whether buyers can flip the trend, as the month is still young.
Monthly high: 81.196k
Monthly low: 73.5k
Weekly Timeframe
The dominant trend remains downward. Last week marked the fifth consecutive week of one-timeframing lower, with longer-term sellers still in control.
Last week’s high: 81.2k
Last week’s low: 73.5k
Daily Timeframe
Buyers are actively trying to defend the 73.5k to 74k range. The question is whether sellers can extend price below last week’s 73.5k low.
TPO Profile Analysis
BTC is back trading inside the 21/08 profile range, and last week’s low has revisited the second single print area. This leads me to highlight the market-generated information from 19/08 to 20/08.
I am not saying the market must revisit these areas. However, it is worth highlighting them to understand how market participants may behave if price reaches those references.
On 19/08, the market was a low confidence day because the POC did not migrate with price as it moved higher.
Market Generated Information: 19/08 to 20/08
19/08 poor low
19/08 prominent POC
19/08 single prints
20/08 prominent POC
20/08 poor low
20/08 single prints
fig 13: 19/08 - 20/08 profile
The 21/08 profile low is a good low. Since the market has already traded through the last single-print area, it remains to be seen whether buyers can flip the script.
This can be validated if buyers respond positively to this week’s dominant concerns and begin building acceptance back within the prior profile structure.
Key Levels
If last week’s 73.5k low holds, I will be watching for the following:
A recovery back into the 18/09 profile.
Acceptance above the 15/09 and 6/09 highs.
A broader move toward 80k.
If last week’s low fails to hold and lower prices continue to bring in more activity, I will be watching the 19/08 to 20/08 market-generated information for potential response and acceptance.