Bitcoin Enters a High-Risk Phase — On-Chain Analysis Warns of Possible Market Pressure
New analytical data suggests that the market structure of may have entered a high-risk phase , according to an on-chain analysis published by blockchain analytics firm . The analysis is based on blockchain data indicators that track investor behavior in recent months .
The analysis focuses on a metric known as the 90-Day Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio , which compares the amount of realized profits to realized losses from Bitcoin transactions over the last 90 days .
When the indicator is above 1
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It means that most investors are selling at a profit .
However , when the ratio drops below 1
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It indicates that , on average , traders are beginning to sell their Bitcoin at a loss .
According to the latest analysis
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This metric has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022 . Some analysts interpret this signal as a sign that the market may be entering what is commonly known as a capitulation phase , a stage where many investors start selling their holdings at a loss after a period of market pressure .
The analysis also references historical comparisons with previous Bitcoin market cycles .
In 2018
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When a similar signal appeared in on-chain data , Bitcoin experienced a price decline of about 50% in the months that followed .
In 2022
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A comparable pattern emerged again , and the market saw a drop of roughly 25% over several months .
Based on these historical observations
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Some analysts suggest that if the pattern repeats , the market could face continued downward pressure for several months .
Current on-chain models also indicate that the level around $43,760 could represent a potential extreme low . This level aligns with the MVRV-based bear market floor model used by analysts to estimate possible market bottoms .
Overall
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The analysis suggests that the market could search for a structural bottom within the $40,000 to $50,000 range . Volatility may increase as the market attempts to stabilize .
⚠️ Important Warning
This report represents analysis based on historical data and on-chain indicators only
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It does not guarantee that the market will follow the same pattern as previous cycles . The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can change rapidly due to factors such as global liquidity , economic developments , or large investor activity .
Therefore
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This analysis should not be considered financial or investment advice . Investors should always conduct their own research before making any investment decisions .
