PCE
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ترجمة
Bitcoin Poised for Potential Gains Amid US Economic Slowdown
As the U.S. economy shows signs of entering a recession, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a potential beneficiary, with expectations that it may serve as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold.
According to CoinTelegraph, U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth since Q2 2022, and surprising markets that expected a 0.3% increase. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) also exceeded expectations, rising 1.8%, while core PCE climbed 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressure.
This has led to growing concerns about ‘stagflation’—the combination of economic stagnation and inflation. The Federal Reserve now faces a difficult choice between cutting interest rates to avoid further economic contraction and rising unemployment, or maintaining rates to control inflation.
As a result, the market now sees a 63% chance of a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed in June, up from a mere 3% chance for May. The prospect of a potential rate cut and continued market volatility highlights Bitcoin’s emerging role as a store of value.
Meanwhile, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are reflecting a high probability of a U.S. recession by 2025, with chances at 74% and 70%, respectively. Despite short-term price fluctuations, a 'buy the dip' strategy is gaining traction as liquidity increases and risk sentiment recovers.
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#bitcoin #GDP #PCE
As the U.S. economy shows signs of entering a recession, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a potential beneficiary, with expectations that it may serve as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold.
According to CoinTelegraph, U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth since Q2 2022, and surprising markets that expected a 0.3% increase. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) also exceeded expectations, rising 1.8%, while core PCE climbed 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressure.
This has led to growing concerns about ‘stagflation’—the combination of economic stagnation and inflation. The Federal Reserve now faces a difficult choice between cutting interest rates to avoid further economic contraction and rising unemployment, or maintaining rates to control inflation.
As a result, the market now sees a 63% chance of a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed in June, up from a mere 3% chance for May. The prospect of a potential rate cut and continued market volatility highlights Bitcoin’s emerging role as a store of value.
Meanwhile, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are reflecting a high probability of a U.S. recession by 2025, with chances at 74% and 70%, respectively. Despite short-term price fluctuations, a 'buy the dip' strategy is gaining traction as liquidity increases and risk sentiment recovers.
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#bitcoin #GDP #PCE
ترجمة
⚠️IMPORTANTE⚠️
💥PARTE 1: El impacto de esto es ENORME. Esto es lo que podría pasar de cara a lo que viene:
🤯Entre ayer y hoy nos llegaron DATOS FUNDAMENTALES sobre lo que está pasando en la ECONOMÍA de EE.UU
📍Ante los datos de hoy, los inversores ahora esperan 4 recortes de tasa SEGUIDOS (Junio, Julio, Septiembre y Octubre)
📍Pero además las probabilidades de que se recorte por 5ta vez en Diciembre aumentaron al 33.1% (muchísimo )
¿Qué datos RECESIVOS tuvimos ayer⁉️
👉Ayer la apertura de NUEVOS EMPLEOS se DESPLOMÓ, pasó de 7.480M a 7.192M mientras se esperaban 7.490M
-Es la PEOR lectura en 4 años y PEOR a la esperada
👉También la confianza del consumidor se DESPLOMÓ por quinto mes consecutivo y más de lo esperado a medida que aumentan los temores sobre el empleo
-Cayó a su nivel más bajo desde los primeros días de la pandemia de COVID-19 pasando de 93.9 a 86, mientras se esperaba un 87.7
👉Esto ya estaba mostrando una CAÍDA en la actividad económica y venía de la mano de la FED de Atlanta pronosticando un DECRECIMIENTO del PBI
¿Qué datos que piden a gritos ESTIMULOS ECONÓMICOS tuvimos HOY⁉️
🔻El PBI de EE.UU se desplomó de 2.4% a -0.3% mientras se esperaba un 0.2%
🔻La ECONOMÍA de EE.UU está a 1 trimestre de entrar en RECESIÓN TÉCNICA si se registra otro decrecimiento
🔻Además los nuevos empleos fuera del sector agrícola pasaron de 147K a 62K mientras se esperaban 114K
🔻La INFLACIÓN PCE CORE mensual CAYÓ más de lo esperado, pasó de 0.5% a 0% mientras se esperaba un 0.1%
🔻El PCE core anual queda en 2.6% como se esperaba, anteriormente un 3%
👉El PCE Core es una medida de inflación que excluye alimentos y energía para reflejar mejor la inflación
👉Es más importante que el PCE "común" porque es la métrica preferida por la Reserva Federal
#Fed #inflación #economy #EEUU #PCE $USDC
💥PARTE 1: El impacto de esto es ENORME. Esto es lo que podría pasar de cara a lo que viene:
🤯Entre ayer y hoy nos llegaron DATOS FUNDAMENTALES sobre lo que está pasando en la ECONOMÍA de EE.UU
📍Ante los datos de hoy, los inversores ahora esperan 4 recortes de tasa SEGUIDOS (Junio, Julio, Septiembre y Octubre)
📍Pero además las probabilidades de que se recorte por 5ta vez en Diciembre aumentaron al 33.1% (muchísimo )
¿Qué datos RECESIVOS tuvimos ayer⁉️
👉Ayer la apertura de NUEVOS EMPLEOS se DESPLOMÓ, pasó de 7.480M a 7.192M mientras se esperaban 7.490M
-Es la PEOR lectura en 4 años y PEOR a la esperada
👉También la confianza del consumidor se DESPLOMÓ por quinto mes consecutivo y más de lo esperado a medida que aumentan los temores sobre el empleo
-Cayó a su nivel más bajo desde los primeros días de la pandemia de COVID-19 pasando de 93.9 a 86, mientras se esperaba un 87.7
👉Esto ya estaba mostrando una CAÍDA en la actividad económica y venía de la mano de la FED de Atlanta pronosticando un DECRECIMIENTO del PBI
¿Qué datos que piden a gritos ESTIMULOS ECONÓMICOS tuvimos HOY⁉️
🔻El PBI de EE.UU se desplomó de 2.4% a -0.3% mientras se esperaba un 0.2%
🔻La ECONOMÍA de EE.UU está a 1 trimestre de entrar en RECESIÓN TÉCNICA si se registra otro decrecimiento
🔻Además los nuevos empleos fuera del sector agrícola pasaron de 147K a 62K mientras se esperaban 114K
🔻La INFLACIÓN PCE CORE mensual CAYÓ más de lo esperado, pasó de 0.5% a 0% mientras se esperaba un 0.1%
🔻El PCE core anual queda en 2.6% como se esperaba, anteriormente un 3%
👉El PCE Core es una medida de inflación que excluye alimentos y energía para reflejar mejor la inflación
👉Es más importante que el PCE "común" porque es la métrica preferida por la Reserva Federal
#Fed #inflación #economy #EEUU #PCE $USDC
ترجمة
US PCE Inflation Drops to 2.3%: Will the Fed Cut Rates? – Critical Analysis
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate has been reported at 2.3% year-over-year, aligning with forecasts, indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates.
The eagerly awaited March PCE inflation figures have met expectations, prompting speculation among market participants regarding the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions.
This inflation measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator and implies that Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will probably decide to keep rates steady during the May meeting.
US PCE Inflation Data Comes In At 2.3%
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that the inflation rate for March in the United States was recorded at 2.3% year-over-year (YoY), aligning with forecasts, and 0% month-over-month.
Concurrently, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index registered a YoY increase of 2.6%, marking the lowest level since June 2024.
This information is crucial as it serves as the Federal Reserve's primary measure of inflation and may influence their decisions during the upcoming FOMC meeting in May.
Given the stagnation in PCE inflation data, it appears unlikely that Chair Powell and the FOMC will opt for a reduction in interest rates during their meeting scheduled for the 6th and 7th of May.
Additionally, it is noteworthy that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a four-year low in job openings, which could bolster the argument for a rate cut.
However, Powell and the committee typically prioritize labor market conditions when contemplating adjustments to monetary policy.
Presently, the Fed Chair seems to be more focused on the implications of tariffs imposed by Trump and the inflationary pressures they may generate, contributing to their reluctance to lower rates in the near future.
#PCE #CryptoNewss #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate has been reported at 2.3% year-over-year, aligning with forecasts, indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates.
The eagerly awaited March PCE inflation figures have met expectations, prompting speculation among market participants regarding the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions.
This inflation measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator and implies that Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will probably decide to keep rates steady during the May meeting.
US PCE Inflation Data Comes In At 2.3%
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that the inflation rate for March in the United States was recorded at 2.3% year-over-year (YoY), aligning with forecasts, and 0% month-over-month.
Concurrently, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index registered a YoY increase of 2.6%, marking the lowest level since June 2024.
This information is crucial as it serves as the Federal Reserve's primary measure of inflation and may influence their decisions during the upcoming FOMC meeting in May.
Given the stagnation in PCE inflation data, it appears unlikely that Chair Powell and the FOMC will opt for a reduction in interest rates during their meeting scheduled for the 6th and 7th of May.
Additionally, it is noteworthy that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a four-year low in job openings, which could bolster the argument for a rate cut.
However, Powell and the committee typically prioritize labor market conditions when contemplating adjustments to monetary policy.
Presently, the Fed Chair seems to be more focused on the implications of tariffs imposed by Trump and the inflationary pressures they may generate, contributing to their reluctance to lower rates in the near future.
#PCE #CryptoNewss #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update
ترجمة
🚨 US PCE Inflation Holds at 2.3% — Rate Cuts on Hold?
📊 March’s PCE inflation data came in right on target at 2.3% YoY, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its May meeting.
🏛 As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this print keeps markets in wait-and-see mode on future policy moves.
#FederalReserve #Inflation #PCE #Economy #FOMC
📊 March’s PCE inflation data came in right on target at 2.3% YoY, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its May meeting.
🏛 As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this print keeps markets in wait-and-see mode on future policy moves.
#FederalReserve #Inflation #PCE #Economy #FOMC
ترجمة
Crypto Market Outlook: Will PCE Inflation Data Spark Rally Tomorrow? – Key Analysis
Crypto traders are closely monitoring the PCE inflation report set to be released tomorrow, as data that is cooler than anticipated may create a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
This report, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, has historically impacted the crypto sector.
Investors will pay particular attention to the March figures for indications regarding possible interest rate changes that could influence liquidity and investment trends in financial markets.
Projected PCE inflation for March
Market forecasts for the upcoming PCE inflation report suggest a possible reduction in inflationary pressures.
Data from MarketWatch indicates that the core PCE inflation rate for March is anticipated to be 2.6%, reflecting a decline from February's 2.8% figure, which had previously increased from January's 2.7% rate.
Furthermore, the overall PCE inflation, which encompasses food and energy prices, is projected to experience a more significant drop, with year-over-year PCE inflation expected to be 2.2% for March, down from 2.5% in February.
The projections suggest that inflation is slowly approaching the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, although it remains above this level.
This slowdown in price increases comes after several months of inconsistent inflation data, complicating the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index is crucial as it serves as the Federal Reserve's main tool for assessing inflation.
It offers a more comprehensive perspective on price movements in the economy compared to the more commonly known Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The core PCE excludes the fluctuating prices of food and energy to present a clearer picture of the fundamental inflation trend.
How would that affect the crypto market?
Should the core PCE inflation rate be recorded at 2.6% and the headline PCE at 2.2%, it is likely that the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, would react favorably.
Diminished inflation figures would enhance the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more lenient monetary policy, potentially resulting in interest rate cuts later in the year.
Lower interest rates tend to favor riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies for several reasons.
Firstly, they diminish the appeal of traditional return-generating investments like bonds and savings accounts, prompting investors to seek out riskier, potentially higher-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Secondly, a more accommodating monetary policy injects additional liquidity into the financial system, some of which may flow into cryptocurrency markets.
If the market trends align with this scenario, Robert Kiyosaki's prediction of a $200,000 Bitcoin price could materialize.
Furthermore, if PCE figures fall below expectations (specifically below 2.6% for core PCE), this could trigger an even more favorable reaction in cryptocurrency markets, reinforcing the case for earlier and more substantial interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.
Analyst Will Meade echoed this sentiment, suggesting via Twitter that a lower-than-expected PCE inflation rate could lead to a surge in stock prices, which would also likely benefit cryptocurrency valuations.
On the other hand, should inflation be more enduring than expected and surpass the 2.6% forecast, it may lead to a decline in cryptocurrency prices.
#CryptoMarkets #PCE #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update #CryptoNewss
This report, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, has historically impacted the crypto sector.
Investors will pay particular attention to the March figures for indications regarding possible interest rate changes that could influence liquidity and investment trends in financial markets.
Projected PCE inflation for March
Market forecasts for the upcoming PCE inflation report suggest a possible reduction in inflationary pressures.
Data from MarketWatch indicates that the core PCE inflation rate for March is anticipated to be 2.6%, reflecting a decline from February's 2.8% figure, which had previously increased from January's 2.7% rate.
Furthermore, the overall PCE inflation, which encompasses food and energy prices, is projected to experience a more significant drop, with year-over-year PCE inflation expected to be 2.2% for March, down from 2.5% in February.
The projections suggest that inflation is slowly approaching the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, although it remains above this level.
This slowdown in price increases comes after several months of inconsistent inflation data, complicating the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index is crucial as it serves as the Federal Reserve's main tool for assessing inflation.
It offers a more comprehensive perspective on price movements in the economy compared to the more commonly known Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The core PCE excludes the fluctuating prices of food and energy to present a clearer picture of the fundamental inflation trend.
How would that affect the crypto market?
Should the core PCE inflation rate be recorded at 2.6% and the headline PCE at 2.2%, it is likely that the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, would react favorably.
Diminished inflation figures would enhance the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more lenient monetary policy, potentially resulting in interest rate cuts later in the year.
Lower interest rates tend to favor riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies for several reasons.
Firstly, they diminish the appeal of traditional return-generating investments like bonds and savings accounts, prompting investors to seek out riskier, potentially higher-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Secondly, a more accommodating monetary policy injects additional liquidity into the financial system, some of which may flow into cryptocurrency markets.
If the market trends align with this scenario, Robert Kiyosaki's prediction of a $200,000 Bitcoin price could materialize.
Furthermore, if PCE figures fall below expectations (specifically below 2.6% for core PCE), this could trigger an even more favorable reaction in cryptocurrency markets, reinforcing the case for earlier and more substantial interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.
Analyst Will Meade echoed this sentiment, suggesting via Twitter that a lower-than-expected PCE inflation rate could lead to a surge in stock prices, which would also likely benefit cryptocurrency valuations.
On the other hand, should inflation be more enduring than expected and surpass the 2.6% forecast, it may lead to a decline in cryptocurrency prices.
#CryptoMarkets #PCE #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update #CryptoNewss
ترجمة
🔥ATENCIÓN🔥
🗓 Esta semana tiene DATOS ECONÓMICOS IMPORTANTÍSIMOS para los mercados financieros
¿Qué podemos esperar de ellos⁉️
🔹Martes
▪️Confianza del CONSUMIDOR 11:00 ARG
▪️Encuesta JOLTS de ofertas de EMPLEO 11:00 ARG
🔹Miércoles
▪️Cambio de EMPLEO no AGRÍCOLA 09:15 ARG
▪️PBI EEUU 09:30 ARG
▪️INFLACIÓN PCE subyacente 11:00 ARG
🔹Jueves
▪️Decisión de tasa de interés de Japón 00:00 ARG
▪️Peticiones de subsidios por DESEMPLEO 09:30 ARG
▪️PMI manufacturero 10:45 ARG
🔹Viernes
▪️Ingresos medios por hora 09:30 ARG
▪️Nóminas no agrícolas 09:30 ARG
▪️Tasa de desempleo 09:30 ARG
👉 Esto es lo que podemos esperar:
📍Debilidad en el MERCADO LABORAL podría llevar a la FED a RECORTAR la TASA de INTERÉS antes de lo esperado
📍El PBI de EE.UU podría generar temores de RECESIÓN si viene muy mal
📍Clave que la INFLACIÓN PCE caiga para impulsar los recortes de la tasa de interés
#Fed #EEUU #japon #economy #PCE $USDC
🗓 Esta semana tiene DATOS ECONÓMICOS IMPORTANTÍSIMOS para los mercados financieros
¿Qué podemos esperar de ellos⁉️
🔹Martes
▪️Confianza del CONSUMIDOR 11:00 ARG
▪️Encuesta JOLTS de ofertas de EMPLEO 11:00 ARG
🔹Miércoles
▪️Cambio de EMPLEO no AGRÍCOLA 09:15 ARG
▪️PBI EEUU 09:30 ARG
▪️INFLACIÓN PCE subyacente 11:00 ARG
🔹Jueves
▪️Decisión de tasa de interés de Japón 00:00 ARG
▪️Peticiones de subsidios por DESEMPLEO 09:30 ARG
▪️PMI manufacturero 10:45 ARG
🔹Viernes
▪️Ingresos medios por hora 09:30 ARG
▪️Nóminas no agrícolas 09:30 ARG
▪️Tasa de desempleo 09:30 ARG
👉 Esto es lo que podemos esperar:
📍Debilidad en el MERCADO LABORAL podría llevar a la FED a RECORTAR la TASA de INTERÉS antes de lo esperado
📍El PBI de EE.UU podría generar temores de RECESIÓN si viene muy mal
📍Clave que la INFLACIÓN PCE caiga para impulsar los recortes de la tasa de interés
#Fed #EEUU #japon #economy #PCE $USDC
ترجمة
🚨BREAKING:
🇺🇸 US PCE DATA: 👇
U.S. CORE PCE RISES 0.4% M/M EXPECTED: +0.3%
U.S. CORE PCE RISES 2.8% Y/Y
EXPECTED: +2.7%
#BSCTrendingCoins #PCE
🇺🇸 US PCE DATA: 👇
U.S. CORE PCE RISES 0.4% M/M EXPECTED: +0.3%
U.S. CORE PCE RISES 2.8% Y/Y
EXPECTED: +2.7%
#BSCTrendingCoins #PCE
ترجمة
💥💥💥US PCE is due in 2.5 hours.
PCE: Estimated 2.5% | Previous 2.5%
Core PCE: Estimated 2.7% | Previous 2.6%
Today's red could be a liquidation of LONG positions before the strong breakout,
However, I still believe the market is being squeezed against reality.
✅BUY
$BNB 629$
$ETH 1911$
$CAKE 2.14$
#BSCTrendingCoins #MarketPullback #PCE
PCE: Estimated 2.5% | Previous 2.5%
Core PCE: Estimated 2.7% | Previous 2.6%
Today's red could be a liquidation of LONG positions before the strong breakout,
However, I still believe the market is being squeezed against reality.
✅BUY
$BNB 629$
$ETH 1911$
$CAKE 2.14$
#BSCTrendingCoins #MarketPullback #PCE
ترجمة
U.S. Stock Market Performance:
On March 28, 2025, U.S. stock futures experienced slight declines as investors awaited key inflation data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, anticipated to show an annual inflation rate of 2.5% for February. Additionally, new auto import tariffs announced by President Trump have impacted companies like General Motors, whose shares have continued to decline.
Cryptocurrency Market Movements:
Bitcoin experienced a decline of 2.21%, bringing its price to $85,113. Ethereum also saw a decrease, with its price dropping to $1,888.54, down 6.4% from the previous close. These fluctuations may be attributed to broader market uncertainties and investor sentiment shifting away from riskier assets.
Market Sentiment and Strategies:
Given the current market conditions, some investors are considering short positions, finding them more comfortable with minimal stop losses. Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, Mike Wilson, suggests several strategic moves in light of rising recession fears:#USstock #PCE #cryptocurreny #Ethereum #bitcoin
On March 28, 2025, U.S. stock futures experienced slight declines as investors awaited key inflation data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, anticipated to show an annual inflation rate of 2.5% for February. Additionally, new auto import tariffs announced by President Trump have impacted companies like General Motors, whose shares have continued to decline.
Cryptocurrency Market Movements:
Bitcoin experienced a decline of 2.21%, bringing its price to $85,113. Ethereum also saw a decrease, with its price dropping to $1,888.54, down 6.4% from the previous close. These fluctuations may be attributed to broader market uncertainties and investor sentiment shifting away from riskier assets.
Market Sentiment and Strategies:
Given the current market conditions, some investors are considering short positions, finding them more comfortable with minimal stop losses. Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, Mike Wilson, suggests several strategic moves in light of rising recession fears:#USstock #PCE #cryptocurreny #Ethereum #bitcoin
ترجمة
Các Sự Kiện Kinh Tế Quan Trọng Tuần Này & Ảnh Hưởng Đến Tiền Điện Tử
Tuần này, thị trường tài chính và crypto sẽ theo dõi sát các dữ liệu kinh tế quan trọng từ Mỹ, đặc biệt là lạm phát PCE – chỉ số mà Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) ưu tiên để đánh giá chính sách tiền tệ.
⸻
🗓️ Lịch Sự Kiện Kinh Tế (Theo Giờ Mỹ)
🔹 Thứ Hai, 24/03
• Chỉ số #PMI sơ bộ của S&P cho lĩnh vực dịch vụ & sản xuất tại Mỹ.
🔹 Thứ Ba, 25/03
• Chỉ số giá nhà S&P Case-Shiller (theo dõi xu hướng thị trường bất động sản).
🔹 Thứ Tư, 26/03
• Chủ tịch Fed khu vực St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, phát biểu.
🔹 Thứ Năm, 27/03
• Số đơn xin trợ cấp thất nghiệp lần đầu tại Mỹ (Dự báo: 226.000 | Trước đó: 223.000).
• Chủ tịch Fed khu vực Richmond, Tom Barkin, phát biểu.
🔹 Thứ Sáu, 28/03
• Dữ liệu lạm phát PCE của Mỹ (Dự báo: 2,5% | Trước đó: 2,5%).
• Dữ liệu core #PCE (Dự báo: 2,7% | Trước đó: 2,6%).
• Quyết định lãi suất của Mexico (dự kiến giảm 0,5%).
⸻
📊 Ảnh Hưởng Đến Thị Trường Tiền Điện Tử
✅ Lạm phát PCE – Yếu tố quyết định chính sách Fed:
• Nếu PCE giảm, Fed có thể nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ, thúc đẩy dòng vốn vào crypto và chứng khoán.
• Ngược lại, nếu PCE cao hơn dự kiến, Fed có thể duy trì lãi suất cao lâu hơn, gây áp lực lên Bitcoin & Altcoin.
✅ Chỉ số thất nghiệp & PMI – Sức khỏe kinh tế Mỹ:
• Thị trường lao động yếu có thể khiến Fed cân nhắc giảm lãi suất sớm hơn, hỗ trợ tài sản rủi ro như crypto.
• Nếu PMI và việc làm tốt, Fed có thể tiếp tục duy trì chính sách thắt chặt.
✅ Chỉ số giá nhà – Tác động đến niềm tin đầu tư:
• Nếu giá nhà Mỹ tiếp tục tăng cao, dòng vốn có thể bị hút vào bất động sản thay vì crypto.
✅ Quyết định lãi suất của Mexico – Ảnh hưởng đến dòng vốn toàn cầu:
• Nếu Mexico giảm lãi suất, các nước khác có thể làm theo, hỗ trợ thị trường tài sản rủi ro.
⸻
⚠️ Cảnh Báo Rủi Ro
Mặc dù các dữ liệu kinh tế có thể ảnh hưởng đến thị trường crypto, nhưng thị trường tiền điện tử luôn có biến động lớn và bị tác động bởi nhiều yếu tố khác như quy định pháp lý, tâm lý nhà đầu tư và thanh khoản toàn cầu.
📉 Nhà đầu tư nên thận trọng trước các biến động mạnh quanh thời điểm công bố dữ liệu quan trọng, đặc biệt là PCE và phát biểu của Fed, vì đây có thể là chất xúc tác lớn cho giá Bitcoin và Altcoin.
⸻
🗓️ Lịch Sự Kiện Kinh Tế (Theo Giờ Mỹ)
🔹 Thứ Hai, 24/03
• Chỉ số #PMI sơ bộ của S&P cho lĩnh vực dịch vụ & sản xuất tại Mỹ.
🔹 Thứ Ba, 25/03
• Chỉ số giá nhà S&P Case-Shiller (theo dõi xu hướng thị trường bất động sản).
🔹 Thứ Tư, 26/03
• Chủ tịch Fed khu vực St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, phát biểu.
🔹 Thứ Năm, 27/03
• Số đơn xin trợ cấp thất nghiệp lần đầu tại Mỹ (Dự báo: 226.000 | Trước đó: 223.000).
• Chủ tịch Fed khu vực Richmond, Tom Barkin, phát biểu.
🔹 Thứ Sáu, 28/03
• Dữ liệu lạm phát PCE của Mỹ (Dự báo: 2,5% | Trước đó: 2,5%).
• Dữ liệu core #PCE (Dự báo: 2,7% | Trước đó: 2,6%).
• Quyết định lãi suất của Mexico (dự kiến giảm 0,5%).
⸻
📊 Ảnh Hưởng Đến Thị Trường Tiền Điện Tử
✅ Lạm phát PCE – Yếu tố quyết định chính sách Fed:
• Nếu PCE giảm, Fed có thể nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ, thúc đẩy dòng vốn vào crypto và chứng khoán.
• Ngược lại, nếu PCE cao hơn dự kiến, Fed có thể duy trì lãi suất cao lâu hơn, gây áp lực lên Bitcoin & Altcoin.
✅ Chỉ số thất nghiệp & PMI – Sức khỏe kinh tế Mỹ:
• Thị trường lao động yếu có thể khiến Fed cân nhắc giảm lãi suất sớm hơn, hỗ trợ tài sản rủi ro như crypto.
• Nếu PMI và việc làm tốt, Fed có thể tiếp tục duy trì chính sách thắt chặt.
✅ Chỉ số giá nhà – Tác động đến niềm tin đầu tư:
• Nếu giá nhà Mỹ tiếp tục tăng cao, dòng vốn có thể bị hút vào bất động sản thay vì crypto.
✅ Quyết định lãi suất của Mexico – Ảnh hưởng đến dòng vốn toàn cầu:
• Nếu Mexico giảm lãi suất, các nước khác có thể làm theo, hỗ trợ thị trường tài sản rủi ro.
⸻
⚠️ Cảnh Báo Rủi Ro
Mặc dù các dữ liệu kinh tế có thể ảnh hưởng đến thị trường crypto, nhưng thị trường tiền điện tử luôn có biến động lớn và bị tác động bởi nhiều yếu tố khác như quy định pháp lý, tâm lý nhà đầu tư và thanh khoản toàn cầu.
📉 Nhà đầu tư nên thận trọng trước các biến động mạnh quanh thời điểm công bố dữ liệu quan trọng, đặc biệt là PCE và phát biểu của Fed, vì đây có thể là chất xúc tác lớn cho giá Bitcoin và Altcoin.
ترجمة
看很多小伙伴对于今晚的PCE数据不太理解，简单用白话易懂的语言给大家聊聊数据影响以及结合当下行情该如何看：
今晚9 点半美国要公布 12 月 PCE 数据，核心 PCE 可是美联储判断通胀的关键，他们一直说的 2%目标，就是指核心 PCE 年率达到 2%。所以这数据挺关键，能反映美国通胀走向。要是核心 PCE 数值低，市场一般觉得是好事，可能暗示美联储会多降息几次。
不过呢，美联储做决定时，得把通胀、劳动力市场和经济情况都考虑进去，单看一个月的通胀数据，很难让他们改变主意。而且就算他们想多降息，大概率也是 3 月之后的事了。所以这份通胀数据，其实也没啥大不了的。
#PCE #加密市场反弹 #微策略持续增持BTC
今晚9 点半美国要公布 12 月 PCE 数据，核心 PCE 可是美联储判断通胀的关键，他们一直说的 2%目标，就是指核心 PCE 年率达到 2%。所以这数据挺关键，能反映美国通胀走向。要是核心 PCE 数值低，市场一般觉得是好事，可能暗示美联储会多降息几次。
不过呢，美联储做决定时，得把通胀、劳动力市场和经济情况都考虑进去，单看一个月的通胀数据，很难让他们改变主意。而且就算他们想多降息，大概率也是 3 月之后的事了。所以这份通胀数据，其实也没啥大不了的。
#PCE #加密市场反弹 #微策略持续增持BTC
ترجمة
加密货币晚间整理
1.人工智能增强无人机登陆乌克兰战场:乌克兰部署了AI无人机,能通过信号干扰导航自主打击俄罗斯目标,这标志着与俄罗斯的技术竞赛进入了新的阶段,据悉人工智能无人机的打击率高达80%,显着提高了作战成功率
2.500亿美元! #SUPERMICRO 暴跌引发 #AI 股票警告:从加入 #标普500 指数以来,超微股价已下跌超过70%,目前面临纳斯达克退市,围绕英伟达相关股票的人工智能炒作浪潮正受到严格审查,尤其是像超微这样的人工智能相关科技股面临着越来越多的监管和合规担忧,而 #META 股价下跌3%
3.黎巴嫩真主党发射一枚火箭袭击了以色列北部梅图拉附近的一片农田,造成4名外国工人和1名以色列人死亡,而以色列无人机袭击黎巴嫩,袭击的目标是一辆在行驶的汽车
4.埃隆马斯克表示:我相信所有国家都会有自己的人工智能集群,但目前构建人工智能集群并运行它非常困难,随着时间推移我认为每个国家都会拥有人工智能计算集群
5.又到了中国房地产时间:中国房地产崩盘摧毁了无数亿万富翁 ,由于房地产市场崩溃,中国经济和股市经历艰难的一年,富豪榜连续第三年出现前所未有的缩水,最新数据显示从2021年达到峰值以来(1185人),以美元计价单位的亿万富豪人数已降到753人
6.特朗普希望在就职前结束加沙战争,根据官员称,他告诉内塔尼亚胡如果他赢得选举,就在一月份之前结束战争 #特朗普 没有具体说明其请求的细节,只要战争正式结束,他就很可能支持以色列国防军在加沙的剩余活动
7.经过五个月收缩后,中国工厂活动开始小幅增长,官方制造业 #PMI 上涨到50.1,非制造业PMI稳定在50.2,这可是好的开始呀!(图1)
8.美国九月裁员人数下降,从7月份到开始呈下降趋势,此外根据图表显示,在下周的 #fomc 会议(11月7日)再次降息25BP有94%的可能性(图2)
9.接上一条,美联储9月份个人消费支出 #pce -首选的通胀指标通胀率降到2.1%,与 预期的2.1%保持一致,核心个人消费支出通胀率保持不变,为 2.7%高于预期的 2.6%,核心PCE下降已有6个月,美联储是否需要降息50BP?
8月份个人消费支出通胀率从2.2%上调到2.3%,核心个人消费支出和消费者物价指数通胀仍然居高不下,美联储转向再次被推迟
10.十月即将结束,对 $BTC 来说市场充斥着非常乐观的情绪,或许十一月的情况将会更加乐观,此外种种迹象表明,如果 #BTC☀️ 巩固在支撑位上方,可能山寨币久有机会表现(图3)
11.虽然 #solana生态 今年从以太坊吸血23.6亿美元的资金,但仍有超过10亿美元回流到以太坊 $ETH 让我们的以太坊再次强大 #MAGA
12.#Binance 创始人 #CZ 出狱后首次在 #迪拜 区块链周公开亮相
2.500亿美元! #SUPERMICRO 暴跌引发 #AI 股票警告:从加入 #标普500 指数以来,超微股价已下跌超过70%,目前面临纳斯达克退市,围绕英伟达相关股票的人工智能炒作浪潮正受到严格审查,尤其是像超微这样的人工智能相关科技股面临着越来越多的监管和合规担忧,而 #META 股价下跌3%
3.黎巴嫩真主党发射一枚火箭袭击了以色列北部梅图拉附近的一片农田,造成4名外国工人和1名以色列人死亡,而以色列无人机袭击黎巴嫩,袭击的目标是一辆在行驶的汽车
4.埃隆马斯克表示:我相信所有国家都会有自己的人工智能集群,但目前构建人工智能集群并运行它非常困难,随着时间推移我认为每个国家都会拥有人工智能计算集群
5.又到了中国房地产时间:中国房地产崩盘摧毁了无数亿万富翁 ,由于房地产市场崩溃,中国经济和股市经历艰难的一年,富豪榜连续第三年出现前所未有的缩水,最新数据显示从2021年达到峰值以来(1185人),以美元计价单位的亿万富豪人数已降到753人
6.特朗普希望在就职前结束加沙战争,根据官员称,他告诉内塔尼亚胡如果他赢得选举,就在一月份之前结束战争 #特朗普 没有具体说明其请求的细节,只要战争正式结束,他就很可能支持以色列国防军在加沙的剩余活动
7.经过五个月收缩后,中国工厂活动开始小幅增长,官方制造业 #PMI 上涨到50.1,非制造业PMI稳定在50.2,这可是好的开始呀!(图1)
8.美国九月裁员人数下降,从7月份到开始呈下降趋势,此外根据图表显示,在下周的 #fomc 会议(11月7日)再次降息25BP有94%的可能性(图2)
9.接上一条,美联储9月份个人消费支出 #pce -首选的通胀指标通胀率降到2.1%,与 预期的2.1%保持一致,核心个人消费支出通胀率保持不变,为 2.7%高于预期的 2.6%,核心PCE下降已有6个月,美联储是否需要降息50BP?
8月份个人消费支出通胀率从2.2%上调到2.3%,核心个人消费支出和消费者物价指数通胀仍然居高不下,美联储转向再次被推迟
10.十月即将结束,对 $BTC 来说市场充斥着非常乐观的情绪,或许十一月的情况将会更加乐观,此外种种迹象表明,如果 #BTC☀️ 巩固在支撑位上方,可能山寨币久有机会表现(图3)
11.虽然 #solana生态 今年从以太坊吸血23.6亿美元的资金,但仍有超过10亿美元回流到以太坊 $ETH 让我们的以太坊再次强大 #MAGA
12.#Binance 创始人 #CZ 出狱后首次在 #迪拜 区块链周公开亮相
ترجمة
美国核心pce录的两年新低！
今晚的核心pce公布值太精确了！居然到小数点后边6位数！
预期值3.5%
公布值3.462924%
前值3.7%
10月pce为两年新低！
这预示着12月美联储不加息的概率又进一步！
算是给11月画了一个完美的句号！#pce
今晚的核心pce公布值太精确了！居然到小数点后边6位数！
预期值3.5%
公布值3.462924%
前值3.7%
10月pce为两年新低！
这预示着12月美联储不加息的概率又进一步！
算是给11月画了一个完美的句号！#pce
ترجمة
🚨 Breaking: US PCE Data In: Inflation remains sticky! 📊
🚀 #Core #PCE rises to 2.8%, above expectations—will this delay Fed rate cuts?
#MarketPullback
🚀 #Core #PCE rises to 2.8%, above expectations—will this delay Fed rate cuts?
#MarketPullback
ترجمة
📊 #PCEInflationWatch – сигнал для ринку чи шум у фоні?
Основний індикатор інфляції, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), знову у фокусі. Чому він важливий? Це улюблений показник ФРС для оцінки інфляції, який впливає на рішення щодо ставок. Чим вищий PCE – тим жорсткішою може бути політика ФРС, а це загроза для ринків.
🔥 Чи побачимо зниження показника, що дасть надію на зменшення ставок у 2024? Або ж інфляція тримається міцно, і ринок готується до чергових викликів?
Ставки високі, тож слідкуємо за даними! Як думаєте, PCE здивує цього разу? 📉📈
#Inflation #PCE #MarketSentimentToday #FederalReserve
Основний індикатор інфляції, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), знову у фокусі. Чому він важливий? Це улюблений показник ФРС для оцінки інфляції, який впливає на рішення щодо ставок. Чим вищий PCE – тим жорсткішою може бути політика ФРС, а це загроза для ринків.
🔥 Чи побачимо зниження показника, що дасть надію на зменшення ставок у 2024? Або ж інфляція тримається міцно, і ринок готується до чергових викликів?
Ставки високі, тож слідкуємо за даними! Як думаєте, PCE здивує цього разу? 📉📈
#Inflation #PCE #MarketSentimentToday #FederalReserve
ترجمة
🇺🇸 FED UPDATE 🚨:
The Fed is set to release the US Core PCE Price Index for February this week 📅! 🔍 The market is predicting a rebound from 2.6% to 2.8% 📊.
What’s your prediction? 🤔👇
💬 Will it rise as expected, or will we see a surprise shift? Let us know your thoughts! 🧐
#PCE #CorePCE #FedUpdate #MarketForecast #Predictions
$BTC $XRP $TRUMP
The Fed is set to release the US Core PCE Price Index for February this week 📅! 🔍 The market is predicting a rebound from 2.6% to 2.8% 📊.
What’s your prediction? 🤔👇
💬 Will it rise as expected, or will we see a surprise shift? Let us know your thoughts! 🧐
#PCE #CorePCE #FedUpdate #MarketForecast #Predictions
$BTC $XRP $TRUMP
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